Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
